Recent nuclear calamity in Japan once again raised demand of a world powered with clean technology enabled sources. Much has been done and much is needed to be done in the field. Though , clean tech is appealing to researchers,investors and policymakers from last couple of decades, its omnipotent impact is still under progress in global markets. Clean Energy Trend 2007 report by Cleanedge noted 2006 as a year of major shift of global concerns from analyzing the impact of climate changes to stepping up tangible actions. Report said developments in clean tech is transforming from steady growth to encompassing acceptance with sedulously dedicated government policies and robust corporate investments. Major breakthroughs in clean energy sector became inevitable in next four years until 2010. Past decade was a critical span for mensurating our sincerity parameter towards environment. One of the major premonitions at the beginning of twenty first century was environmental issue. Voices concerning environment bagan getting weightage from that period only leading to exigent outcomes. With surge in combined global market for solar PV and Wind from $6.5 billion $131.6 billion, we have surely passed the environment trial, but not with reputed numbers. 2011 report annotates the success in terms of clean tech terminology. It said , media was hardly familiar with clean tech in 2000, but now they are an indispensable in aesthetics of environment.
In this period significant changes towards environment also arrived in outlook of individuals also. This is clear from from the report’s data that enunciates number of electric vehicles on road in United States to be less than 10,000 in 2000 and more than 1.4 million in 2010. In 2000 just two electric car modals were available in market, but in 2010 one was resourceful to pick from 30 products.
Economy of Clean Tech :
To make clean tech investor friendly to a greater extent, it must be able to enamour customers. Higher returns would no-doubt make investors fall in love with clean tech. But competition is another truth. Non-clean technologies are still giving tough competition making it to turn the focus of investors in emerging economies who are inure to conventional sources. It should be able to generate respectable number of jobs and reduced installation and operational costs to attract governments across globe to adopt it. High-end research and developments in clean technology sector invites the core enhancements in the power generation facilities utilizing natural resources. Such units are undoubtedly at an advantage with zero input cost. And far-flung effectuation is driving cost of implementation further down. In 2000, establishing and operational costs of clean energy units was much higher than conventional sources. But fossil fuel and oil went throughh a rapid accretion in ten years, assisted clean tech find its place in market.
allegorizin trend,lucrative prospective of clean technology sector encouraged investors during ending years of last century and early years of this century to invest in clean tech. This resulted in technological enhancement that invited more investors which resulted in more technological enhancements. These technological enhacements brought efficient employment of clean tech. With wide implementation, it invited more investors and the chain reaction goes on. Tracing current trend, its very likely, by the end of this decade, environmental friendliness of set-up will become a primary pre-requisite for establishing new units in almost every sector.
6Cs
Pernick and Wilder who also authored the Clean Energy Trends, called attention to 6 driving forces in 2007. In 2011, these Cs(6 driving forces were titled 6 C) are not only relevent , but now they fuel clean tech growth more then ever before. When this parameter was put forth , it was said that increasing cost of fossil fuels is encouraging the employment of the clean energy across sectors. That time (2007) coking coal was available at $91 and crude oil was in stock for $64 (double that what they were in 2000, coal $40 ton crude $27).
This appreciation of 100% from 2000 to 2007 made analysts attribute rising fossil fuel cost for widespread acceptance of clean technologies. In next three years, fossil fuels prices began seeing new highs. In 2010 coal price was $126/ton and crude prices doubled in these three years to see a $100+ prices.Consequence of these increased raw materials for energy generation are intitutive.Though current high levels in coal and crude prices are thanked to Queensland flood and middle east political turmoil. But analysts believe maximum possible depreciation in prices is no more than 10% upon settling of issues.
Clean Energy Trend Report is seemingly inspired with the past growth of usage of clean energy and projected a growth of nearly 100% for biofuels and windpower. Biofuels, which accounted for $56.4 billion globally in 2010, are expected to cover a market of $112.9 billion by 2020. Though growth of biofuels (from 23.6 billion in 2009 to 27.2 billion) is not very promising, but factoring recent innovations and crude prices, this growth is quite bankable.
Wind power (new installations capital costs) was $60.5 billion in 2010 and is projected to grow doubly in ten years from now and will be $122.9 billion by 2020. This projection is despite the fact that global wind power installation dropped from 37.5GW in 2009 to 35.2 GW in 2010. This projection can be ascribed to China (one of the 6 driving factors for clean tech). China is now a global leader in total cumulative installs of more than 42 GW. This data is very significance as it represents inclination of emerging economies for this low operational cost energy source. Emerging markets have huge potential of consumption as well.If they are focussing on clean resources, the future of clean tech can be prognosticated to be more promising. Reckoning the soaring consumption in China, Chinese committment for wind energy is favorable for investors as well as environment.
Clean Edge analysts are not seeing similar growth n solar photovoltaics. This industry is projected to be $113.6 billion by 2020 from $71.2 billion in 2010. Though new installations of solar PV doubling from 7.1% GW in 2009 to 15.6 GW world wide. Depreciation in prices of these equipments possibly led analysts to be conservative in their forecast.
As per IEA, China surpassed United States in 2009 in energy consumption measure with 2.265 billion tons of oil equivalent as compared to 2.16 billion tons of oil equivalent in US. But still there is one thing that would fade the excitement of an environmentalist is Organization of Economic Co-operation (OECD) forecast. According to OECD, contribution of renewables to the energy supply was 34% in India and 20.3% in China in 2000 which dropped to 29.2% and 12.3% in 2007 in India and China respectively. OECD projects renewable contribution in India and China energy supply will be 22.2% and in China it would be 9% by 2020. However United States figures are incremental with 4.8% in 200 to 5.3% in 2007 and projected to be 9% by 2020.
Transformation to consequences : Trends
Investors in United States are way ahead in apprehending the future. According the Clean Tech Trend report, in 2000 venture capital investment in clean tech was less than 1% in US, which is now more than 23% of the total investment.
During past decade, world witnessed development of an investor friendly environment of clean technology ventures. This decade is likely to exert the consequences of transformations arrived during last decade. As Clean Edge report canvassed clean tech revolution to that of internet, it can be safely assumed that now clean tech will influence energy trends. In 90s, internet sector absorbed huge risky investments, but eventually they proved fruitful in next decade (2000 to 2010). In latest version of annually published report, five trends are discussed.
First one emphasizes the the growth of LEDs. Incandescent and Compact Fluoroscnet Light (CFL ) are soon to be replaced by LEDS. With countries like US, Japan,China among others, planning to ban or already ostracized incandescent bulbs, will bring a new world enlightened with LEDs. Report says initially few market leaders can enjoy these government policies with their efficient products.One trend emerging of this trend is the Governments’ taking firm steps for fostering energy efficient products. Indeed such steps are a must for policy makers as its only them who are conceived responsible for meeting their country’s energy requirement. This is now trending that governments’ even from emerging economies are taking firm steps to promote energy efficient technologies.
Obama’s 80% clean energy dependency target by 2020 also includes power production using natural gas and nuclear sources. But risks associated with drilling natural gas and Fukushima disaster have raised security concerns. A new energy production mechanism which uses the natural gas to improve efficiency of wind and solar power generation plants, is in trends. Ain-Ben-Mather , Moracco is now world’s first under-operation Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC plant). Similar plants are under construction in Egypt and Algeria. These plants increase steam generation capacity by adding solar heat to the gas turbine waste heat.
Eco friendly civilian and military aviation is the next trend. Using biofuels for meeting energy desideratum is something leading airlines are focussing.Emerging economies like China and India are seeing big increase in travellers and number of aircrafts. So sustainable fueling researches will create a market for bio fuels in aviation too. Though aviation fuels require long and costly processing, if implemented successfully, bio fuels would find their place in aviation.
Environment friendly sustainable and energy saving residential and cmmercial constructions are next big wave of change. Green buildings are getting faster popularity than ever before. These low cost sustainable buildings offer natural light and ventillation, rain water collection and are made of locally available and recycled materials. This year, new innovations with low cost facilities are set to be introduced.
Fifth trend proposed in the report is the innovations in the rare earth metals. These metals found a variety of applications in nuclear,laser,aerospace,electrodes etc. They are requisite in several new clean technology solutions. But they are prone to imbalance in demand-supply and with increasing clean technology usages, their low cost and easy availability become mandatory to keep clean technologies as much independent as possible. China is the leading supplier of rare earth with 95% percent of total world production. But as China is committed to reduce its exports by 11 percent ( part of 7% growth target set by premiere Wen Jiabao) in first six months of 2011, rare earth metal prices are billowing. Now clean technology companies are moving ahead from China dependency to alternatives. Nontech can possibly provide a solution in future. Currently automakers are flag bearers in finding these alternatives. Automakers require a permanent magnet, usually made of neodynium to convert electrical energy to mechnical energy in cars. Recent advancements made it possible to develop a rare earth free induction motor.
Tags: Clean Tech, Economy